Who is winning in the young Chinese smart EV startup competition? It’s complicated. The funny thing is how similar NIO’s and XPeng’s growth charts look. Of course, there are clear differences too, but overall, their sales charts over the past four years look like close cousins.
Starting with the yearly view, NIO started a bit ahead of XPeng in 2020, then fell a little bit behind in 2021, then rose slightly above XPeng again in 2022, and then had a notably strong year in 2023. Even in 2023, though, NIO was just 13% above XPeng. But the yearly view also hides some things.
Looking at the quarterly sales charts for the two companies, we can see that XPeng shot well above NIO in the 4th quarter. NIO had a clear record 3rd quarter — far more sales than either company had ever scored in one quarter — but then XPeng followed up its second best quarter ever with a new record well above NIO’s. After the dips in Q1 and Q2, though, one has to wonder what is coming in Q1 and Q2 of 2024. Will the strong sales trends continue? Or will there be another notable drop-off to start the year?
Also, will both companies follow similar trends again? Or will they split off and go their own ways?
Looking at the sales charts on the monthly level doesn’t necessarily change the story, but it does add some nuance, showing that XPeng had three solid sales months in a row at about the same level at the end of 2023, similar to what NIO achieved in the first two months of Q3 2023. In general, though, both companies had a very nice rise in sales in the second half of 2023. Any predictions on what 2024 and 2025 will bring? (And if you’re really bold, take us into 2030 with your forecasts!)
Interactive versions of the charts above can be viewed and toyed with here:
All images by CleanTechnica
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